Study: 住房 Premiums Shrink, Signaling Good News for 首页buyers
住房 premiums in many markets in the country are starting to decline, suggesting that many areas across the country are moving toward stabilization, according to 研究ers at Florida Atlantic University 和 Florida International University.
住房 premiums in many markets in the country are starting to decline, suggesting that many areas across the country are moving toward stabilization, according to 研究ers at Florida Atlantic University 和 Florida International University.
In eight out of the 10 most overvalued housing markets, housing price premiums have started to edge back down toward their long term pricing trends, according to January data from the 百强大学.S. 住房 Markets. A premium is measured by the degree of overpricing in terms of a percentage difference between actual 和 statistically modeled home prices.
亚特兰大, the most overvalued market in the country, posted a 12-basis point decline in its housing premium over the past month. The second most overvalued market, 角珊瑚, had a 62-basis point decline; Tampa, fourth most overvalued, had a 17-basis point decline; Palm Bay, fifth most overvalued, a 31-basis point decline; Knoxville, sixth most overvalued, had a 13-basis point decline; Lakel和, the eight most overvalued had a 23-basis point decline; Orl和o, 9号, a six-basis point decline; 和 Charlotte, the tenth most overvalued saw a 14-basis point decline.
“This is good news as it signals these markets could be getting to where prices should be, slowly but surely, creating less risk for catastrophic loss in average home value,” 肯·H. 约翰逊, Ph.D., real estate economist in 能力’s College of Business. “理想情况下, we want to find our way back to the long-term trend for each metro area with as little pain as possible.”
The 百强大学.S. 住房 Markets, a monthly index in 能力’s Real Estate Initiative, measures housing premiums 和 discounts in the 100 most populated metropolitan areas in the country by looking at the difference in actual average home price in a city 和 comparing it to the long-term home pricing trend for the same city to calculate how overvalued or undervalued housing markets are using publicly available data from Zillow.
Several Florida metros also signaled that prices are stabilizing as eight out of the nine measured metros saw small declines in premiums. Examples include North Port with a 75-basis point drop in its housing premium between end of December 2023 和 the end of January; Deltona with a 39-basis point drop; 和 Jacksonville with a 16-basis point drop.
“Equity gains remain strong for current homeowners 和 prospective homebuyers can get a little breather knowing that prices are slightly more stable. All in all, these are good signs for the housing market,” Eli Beracha, Ph.D., director of FIU’s Hollo School of Real Estate.
South Florida remains an area of concern for 研究ers as it was the only measured metro in the state where housing premiums did not decrease, instead going up by 23 basis points.
“As prices are on the upswing still in Miami 和 premiums aren’t showing signs of heading back to the area’s long-term pricing trend, it might be better, in terms of wealth creation, to rent 和 reinvest monies that would have otherwise been put into homeownership,” 约翰逊 said.
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标签: College of Business | 研究